Research
Peer Reviewed Publications
9) "Recruiting Rebels: Introducing the Rebel Appeals and Incentives Dataset." Accepted and Forthcoming. Journal of Conflict Resolution.
Link to Article
Link to Replication Materials
8) Karstens, Mikaela, Michael J. Soules, and Nicholas Dietrich 2023. “A Crack in the Foundation: Event Data, Newspaper Databases, and Threats to Validity and Replicability.” PS: Political Science and Politics.
Link to Article
7) "Thinking Outside of the Box: Transnational Terrorism in Civil Wars." Accepted and Forthcoming. International Studies Quarterly.
Link to Article
Link to Replication Materials
6) Soules, Michael J. 2022. “The Tradeoffs of Using Female Suicide Bombers.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 39 (1): 3-23.
Link to Article
Link to Replication Materials
5) Soules, Michael J. 2022 “Martyr or Mystery? Female Suicide Bombers and Information Availability.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 45 (1): 62-91.
Link to Article
Link to Replication Materials
4) Avdan, Nazli, James A. Piazza, and Michael J. Soules,. “Silver Lining? The Effects of Epidemics on Terrorist Groups.” Accepted and Forthcoming. Terrorism and Political Violence.
Link to Article
Link to Replication Materials
3) Palmer, Glenn, Roseanne McManus, Vito D’Orazio, Michael R. Kenwick, Mikaela Karstens, Chase Bloch, Nicholas Dietrich, Kayla Khan, Kellan Ritter, and Michael J. Soules. “The MID 5 Dataset, 2011-2014: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description. Conflict Management and Peace Science 39 (4): 470-482.
Link to MID Project Website
2) Piazza, James A. and Michael J. Soules. 2021. “Terror After the Caliphate: The Effect of ISIS Loss of Control over Population Centers on Patterns of Global Terrorism.” Security Studies 30 (1): 107-135.
Link to Article
Link to Replication Materials
1) Soules, Michael J. 2020. “Women in Uniform: The Opening of Combat Roles to Women in State Militaries.” International Interactions 46 (6): 847-871.
Link to Article
Link to Replication Materials
Working Papers
***Please do not circulate or cite the working papers without permission.***
4) "Is There a Rebel Resource Curse?" Under Review. Draft Available Here.
Abstract: How do recruitment tactics affect the success of rebel groups in civil wars? The conventional wisdom holds that recruitment strategies that rely more on ideological appeals, relative to material incentives, will attract more committed recruits who are more invested in the success of their groups than their materially motivated counterparts. However, I argue that highly committed recruits provide rebel organizations with a double-edged sword. Specifically, I posit that while ideological recruitment appeals help attract committed recruits, the most devoted militants are often unwilling to compromise with governments, sometimes alienate civilians, and can spark internal clashes over ideological issues, making it difficult for such groups to achieve their long-term objectives. Thus, contrary to the conventional wisdom, I expect that ideologically based recruitment strategies will not help rebels achieve long-term success. To test this claim, I employ novel data on the recruitment practices of rebel organizations that were active across the world during the period of 1989 to 2011. Departing from the previous literature, I do not find evidence that greater reliance on ideological recruitment appeals, relative to material incentives, increases or decreases the probability that rebel organizations experience favorable or unfavorable outcomes.
3) Soules, Michael J. and Kathryn Howarth. "Rebel Recruitment and Terrorism in Civil War." Under Review. Draft Available Here.
Abstract: How does forced recruitment affect rebels’ use of terrorism? We argue that groups employing forced recruitment will launch more attacks against both soft and hard targets and that these attacks will be more severe. Soft target and high casualty attacks facilitate the formation of bonds among abducted recruits, while hard target attacks involve dangerous operations for which groups are willing to sacrifice abducted recruits. Using data on terrorist tactics of rebels, we find robust evidence that groups employing forced recruitment launch more soft target attacks and inflict more casualties. We find modest evidence linking forced recruitment and hard target attacks.
2) Soules, Michael J. and Christopher Willis: "Rebel Recruitment Tactics and Repertoires of Violence." Under Review. Draft Available Here.
Abstract: The conventional wisdom is that militant organizations that rely more on ideological appeals, relative to material incentives, for recruitment, will be more restrained in their treatment of civilians on a variety of dimensions. However, in this paper, we argue that greater reliance on ideological appeals will be associated with restraint in the use of some forms of violence, but not others. We expect that because of normative commitments, institutional constraints, and internal cohesion, ideologically driven rebels will be less likely to engage in sexual violence. However, for the same reasons, we also expect that ideologically committed recruits are often motivated to perpetrate other forms of lethal and non-lethal, non-sexual violence. As a result, ideologically motivated recruits will employ repertories of violence that show restraint in the use of sexual violence, but not other forms of abuse. Using novel data on the recruitment practices of rebel groups across the world, we find evidence for our argument.
1) "Convincing Them to Fight: How Rebel Groups Choose Their Recruitment Tactics." Draft Available Here.
Abstract: Why do some rebel groups rely heavily on material incentives for recruitment, while others depend more on ideological appeals? Much of the literature tends to focus on differences in the recruitment tactics between “resource rich” and “resource poor” rebels. In this research note, I investigate how the material and ideological resources available to rebel groups, and their long-term goals, shape their recruitment strategies. I seek to expand our theoretical understanding of rebel recruitment by examining the effects of different types of material resources, not just the presence of absence of such wealth. However, I argue that groups also have agency in formulating their recruitment strategies and that such choices are not based entirely on available economic and social resources. Specifically, I analyze how militants’ long-term goals affect their recruitment. Using novel data on the persuasive recruitment strategies of over 220 rebel groups active across the world, I find strong evidence that groups that exploit a greater breadth of natural resources are more likely to recruit with material incentives. However, I find that while lootable resources affect recruitment patterns, non-lootable resources do not. Surprisingly, I do not find clear evidence that existing ethnic and religious ties help facilitate ideological-based recruitment. Finally, the results indicate that rebel movements with secessionist aims are more likely to rely on ideological-based recruitment strategies. Thus, this note uses novel data to provide nuance to our understanding of how material and social resources affect the recruitment strategies of rebel organizations.
Works in Progress
Michael J. Soules, Nazli Avdan, and James A. Piazza. “Magical and Spiritual Practices in Rebel Groups.”
“Rebel Recruitment and Governance: How Mobilization Strategies Shape Rebels’ Provision of Social Services.”
“Women’s Status and the Gender Gap in Support for Political Violence.”
“Variation in Terrorist Tactics and Civil War Outcomes.”