Research

Peer Reviewed Publications:

16) Michael J. Soules and Mark Berlin. "A Call to Arms: How Rebel Groups Choose Their Recruitment Tactics." Accepted and Forthcoming at the Journal of Conflict Resolution.

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15) Soules, Michael J., Nazli Avdan, and Kate Howarth. "Magical Practices and Indiscriminate Violence in Armed Conflicts." Accepted and Forthcoming at Studies in Conflict & Terrorism.

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14) Avdan, Nazli, Shelby Davis, and Michael J. Soules. "Magical Practices and the Recruitment of Women into Rebel Groups." Accepted and Forthcoming at International Studies Quarterly.

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13)"Rebels with Too Many Causes: Diverse Recruitment Appeals and the Intractability of Civil Conflicts." Accepted and Forthcoming at Political Research Quarterly.

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12) "Rebel Recruitment and Governance: Examining the Relationship Between Mobilization Strategies and the Provision of Social Services to Civilians." Accepted and Forthcoming at Studies in Conflict & Terrorism.

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11) "Is There a Rebel Resource Curse? Reevaluating the Conventional Wisdom." Accepted and Forthcoming the Journal of Global Security Studies.

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10) Soules, Michael J. and Nazli Avdan. "The Magical Practices of Rebel Organizations: Introducing the Magical Acts by Groups in Civil Conflicts Dataset." Accepted and Forthcoming at the Journal of Peace Research.

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9) Soules, Michael J. 2023. "Recruiting rebels: introducing the rebel appeals and incentives dataset." Journal of Conflict Resolution 67 (9): 1811-1837.

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8) Karstens, Mikaela, Michael J. Soules, and Nick Dietrich. 2023. "On the replicability of data collection using online news databases." PS: Political Science & Politics 56 (2): 265-272.

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7) Soules, Michael J. 2023. "Thinking outside of the box: Transnational terrorism in civil wars." International Studies Quarterly, 67 (2): sqad017.

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6) Avdan, Nazli, James A. Piazza, and Michael J. Soules. 2023. "Silver lining? The effects of epidemics on terrorist groups." Terrorism and Political Violence 35 (4): 908-925.

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5) Soules, Michael J. 2022. “The Tradeoffs of Using Female Suicide Bombers.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 39 (1): 3-23.

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4) Soules, Michael J. 2022. “Martyr or Mystery? Female Suicide Bombers and Information Availability.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 45 (1): 62-91.

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3) Palmer, Glenn, Roseanne McManus, Vito D’Orazio, Michael R. Kenwick, Mikaela Karstens, Chase Bloch, Nicholas Dietrich, Kayla Khan, Kellan Ritter, and Michael J. Soules. “The MID 5 Dataset, 2011-2014: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description. Conflict Management and Peace Science 39 (4): 470-482.

Link to MID Project Website

2) Piazza, James A. and Michael J. Soules. 2021. “Terror After the Caliphate: The Effect of ISIS Loss of Control over Population Centers on Patterns of Global Terrorism.” Security Studies 30 (1): 107-135.

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1) Soules, Michael J. 2020. “Women in Uniform: The Opening of Combat Roles to Women in State Militaries.” International Interactions 46 (6): 847-871.

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Under Review:

***Please do not cite the working papers without permission.***

1) Nicole Huffman, Soren Jordan, B. Kal Munis, Joseph B. Phillips, and Michael J. Soules. "The Protesters in Our Heads: American (Mis)Perceptions About Who Engages in Disruptive Expression."

Abstract: The right to protest has come increasingly under threat in the United States. Even in less challenging times for democracy, support for the right to protest has proven fickle. Little is known, however, about what Americans assume about the demographic and political characteristics of protesters, how malleable these baseline assumptions are, and whether they affect attitudes toward protesters’ rights. Using a nationally representative survey (N=1,079), we find that Americans widely misperceive who protests. Specifically, Americans greatly overestimate the presence of ethnic, sexual, and gender minorities among protesters, and underestimate the presence of middle-income, well-educated, and liberal people. Leveraging an experiment embedded in the survey, we find that these assumptions are easily changed. Even fairly cursory primes of past episodes of collective action significantly sway who Americans think protest in general. However, there is little correlational or causal evidence that who Americans think protest affects attitudes toward the right to protest.

2) Soules, Michael J. and Christopher Willis. "Rebel Recruitment Tactics and Repertoires of Violence." Under Review. Draft Available Here.

Abstract: The conventional wisdom is that militant organizations that rely more on ideological appeals, relative to material incentives, for recruitment, will be more restrained in their treatment of civilians on a variety of dimensions. However, in this paper, we argue that greater reliance on ideological appeals will be associated with restraint in the use of some forms of violence, but not others. We expect that because of normative commitments, institutional constraints, and internal cohesion, ideologically driven rebels will be less likely to engage in sexual violence. However, for the same reasons, we also expect that ideologically committed recruits are often motivated to perpetrate other forms of lethal and non-lethal, non-sexual violence. As a result, ideologically motivated recruits will be more likely to employ repertories of violence that show restraint in the use of sexual violence, but not other forms of abuse. Using novel data on the recruitment practices of rebel groups across the world, we find evidence for our argument.

3) Michael J. Soules, Joseph B. Phillips, and Kal Munis. "Women’s Status and the Gender Gap in Support for Political Violence." Under Review. Draft Available Here.

Abstract: Women tend to be less supportive of military intervention than men, and countries where women’s political empowerment is higher experience less internal conflict. However, little is known about the relationship between gender and attitudes toward political violence within one’s own country. We test between competing possibilities on the presence and variation of a gender gap in these attitudes. One strand of research suggests that as societal gender equality increases, the gender gap will decrease because the erosion of masculinist norms of solving disputes with violence reduces men’s support for political violence. A second strand suggests that the gender gap would increase in egalitarian societies because women’s political attitudes are more liberal and anti-war under more egalitarian conditions. A third strand is agnostic on what levels of gender inequality do, but suggests that sudden increase in equality may lead sexist men to turn to political violence to counteract perceived dominance threats. Using large-scale survey data, find that the gender gap, while generally present, is higher in more egalitarian societies. There is no evidence that support for political violence surges among sexist men in response to advances in women’s empowerment.

Other Working Papers:

1) Soules, Michael J., Shelby Davis, Olayinka Otesanya, and Brandon Bolte. " Draft Available Here.

Abstract: What drives women’s participation in pro-government militias? Anecdotal examples of women’s participation in militias in places like Indonesia and Iran is particularly puzzling, as it involves female militia members violently repressing other women. This is puzzling both because to uphold traditional gender norms, regimes and their militias violate traditional gender norms by recruiting women; and because women in these militias are contributing to the maintenance of a status quo that largely makes society unsafe for women. In response to these puzzles, we argue that high levels of physical insecurity for women increase both the demand militias have for women, and the supply of women willing to join. Regimes and their militias in such societies can recruit women to (1) mitigate the reputational costs of poor women’s security; (2) uphold traditional gender norms; and (3) more effectively police other women. Such physical insecurity can also drive women to join militias for protection. To evaluate this argument, we collect novel data on 504 pro-government militias that were active across the world at some point between 1981 and 2014. We find evidence that women’s participation in pro-government militias is much more likely in societies with very low levels of physical security for women.

2) Nicole Huffman, Soren Jordan, Joseph B. Phillips, and Michael J. Soules. "Demographics of Protestors Do Not Lower Americans' Support for Political Protest or Rejection of Political Violence."

Abstract: There is increasing concern in the US over the security of the right to peacefully protest, unhindered by state or mass political violence. Existing work indicates support for protest and violence against protesters is contingent on the demographic characteristics of protests. Yet, little is known about who the public (mis)perceives protesters to be across multiple identities. We conduct a survey experiment to measure these (mis)perceptions and then shift perceptions with experimental treatments. This pre-post design allows us to demonstrate the causal effect of shifts in demographic perceptions of protests on support for protest, political violence, and democratic norms. Contrary to much of the literature on protest support, we find that protester demographics do not affect support for protests, democratic norms, or political violence. Support for protests and broader support of democratic norms is not contingent on who people perceive to be using their right to protest to oppose the government. We interpret this evidence as signs of a healthy democratic coalition where people support democratic norms and the right to protest, regardless of who protests (even if that protest is likely to be politically unfriendly), while rejecting political violence.