Research
Peer Reviewed Publications
11) "Is There a Rebel Resource Curse? Reevaluating the Conventional Wisdom." Accepted and Forthcoming the Journal of Global Security Studies.
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10) Soules, Michael J. and Nazli Avdan. "The Magical Practices of Rebel Organizations: Introducing the Magical Acts by Groups in Civil Conflicts Dataset." Accepted and Forthcoming at the Journal of Peace Research.
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9) "Recruiting Rebels: Introducing the Rebel Appeals and Incentives Dataset." Accepted and Forthcoming. Journal of Conflict Resolution.
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8) Karstens, Mikaela, Michael J. Soules, and Nicholas Dietrich 2023. “A Crack in the Foundation: Event Data, Newspaper Databases, and Threats to Validity and Replicability.” PS: Political Science and Politics.
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7) "Thinking Outside of the Box: Transnational Terrorism in Civil Wars." Accepted and Forthcoming. International Studies Quarterly.
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6) Soules, Michael J. 2022. “The Tradeoffs of Using Female Suicide Bombers.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 39 (1): 3-23.
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5) Soules, Michael J. 2022 “Martyr or Mystery? Female Suicide Bombers and Information Availability.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 45 (1): 62-91.
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4) Avdan, Nazli, James A. Piazza, and Michael J. Soules,. “Silver Lining? The Effects of Epidemics on Terrorist Groups.” Accepted and Forthcoming. Terrorism and Political Violence.
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3) Palmer, Glenn, Roseanne McManus, Vito D’Orazio, Michael R. Kenwick, Mikaela Karstens, Chase Bloch, Nicholas Dietrich, Kayla Khan, Kellan Ritter, and Michael J. Soules. “The MID 5 Dataset, 2011-2014: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description. Conflict Management and Peace Science 39 (4): 470-482.
Link to MID Project Website
2) Piazza, James A. and Michael J. Soules. 2021. “Terror After the Caliphate: The Effect of ISIS Loss of Control over Population Centers on Patterns of Global Terrorism.” Security Studies 30 (1): 107-135.
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1) Soules, Michael J. 2020. “Women in Uniform: The Opening of Combat Roles to Women in State Militaries.” International Interactions 46 (6): 847-871.
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Under Review
***Please do not cite the working papers without permission.***
1)"Unhappy Campers in a Big Tent: Rebels’ Use of Diverse Recruitment Appeals and the Intractability of Civil Conflicts" Under Review. Draft Available Here.
Abstract: Do rebel groups benefit from attempting to appeal to larger segments of society by mobilizing around more diverse grievances? Prior work has examined a variety of dimensions of grievance-based recruitment in civil wars but has tended to overlook the ways in which the breadth of recruitment appeals made by rebels matters. I argue that rebel organizations suffer from attempts to appeal to a diversity of grievances. Specifically, when rebel organizations represent a diversity of interests, more veto players are introduced and credible commitment problems are exacerbated. These issues complicate the bargaining process, rendering conflicts more intractable. Using novel data on the diversity of grievance-based recruitment appeals employed by armed groups, I find that rebel groups that mobilize around a greater number of grievances fight in more protracted conflicts.
2) Soules, Michael J. and Christopher Willis: "Rebel Recruitment Tactics and Repertoires of Violence." Under Review. Draft Available Here.
Abstract: The conventional wisdom is that militant organizations that rely more on ideological appeals, relative to material incentives, for recruitment, will be more restrained in their treatment of civilians on a variety of dimensions. However, in this paper, we argue that greater reliance on ideological appeals will be associated with restraint in the use of some forms of violence, but not others. We expect that because of normative commitments, institutional constraints, and internal cohesion, ideologically driven rebels will be less likely to engage in sexual violence. However, for the same reasons, we also expect that ideologically committed recruits are often motivated to perpetrate other forms of lethal and non-lethal, non-sexual violence. As a result, ideologically motivated recruits will be more likely to employ repertories of violence that show restraint in the use of sexual violence, but not other forms of abuse. Using novel data on the recruitment practices of rebel groups across the world, we find evidence for our argument.
3) "Rebel Recruitment and Governance: How Mobilization Strategies Shape Rebels’ Provision of Social Services." Under Review. Draft Available Here.
Abstract: How do rebel groups’ recruitment strategies shape their provision of social services to civilians? I argue that when groups rely exclusively on material incentives or fully on ideological appeals for recruitment, they are unlikely to provide civilians with services such as healthcare and education. Primarily materially driven groups avoid providing social services because they undermine profits and they lack the ideological foundations and internal cohesion that often promote the offering of these public goods. In contrast, groups that recruit heavily with ideological appeals lack the material resources to provide these services. However, rebels that recruit with a combination of ideological and material appeals have the ideological drive to provide public goods and the material resources required to provide them. Using data on rebel recruitment tactics and social services provision, I find consistent evidence that groups that employ both ideological and material recruitment appeals are more likely to provide social services to civilians than organizations that use just one type of recruitment appeal.
4) Avdan, Nazli, Shelby Davis, and Michael J. Soules. "Magical Practices and the Recruitment of Women into Rebel Groups." Under Review. Draft Available Here.
Abstract: Magical practices play a central role in the indoctrination and socialization processes of many rebel organizations. Qualitative scholarship has examined the central role that women play as practitioners of magic in some of these organizations. Specifically, some women are believed to have the powers to perform various rituals that help protect recipients, as well as enhance their fighting capabilities. Thus, groups that practice magic often incorporate women into logistical support roles because of the unique abilities that women are believed to possess in facilitating the use of magic. However, despite the prominent relationship between magical practices and the incorporation of women that has been observed in various rebel groups, the burgeoning quantitative literature on the recruitment of women into armed movements has largely overlooked this association. To remedy this, we combine data on the magical practices of rebel organizations and their recruitment of women into logistical support roles to better understand this association. We find fairly strong evidence of a positive association between the use of magical practices and the recruitment of women into logistical support roles in rebel organizations. We conduct subsequent analysis to investigate the association between magical practices and women’s participation in other roles in militant groups.
5) Soules, Michael J., Nazli Avdan, and Kate Howarth. "Magical Practices and Indiscriminate Violence in Civil Wars." Under Review. Draft Available Here.
Abstract: How do magical practices affect violent behavior of rebel groups? Using existing data, we examine the impact of magical practices on rebels’ use of indiscriminate violence in civil wars. We argue that magical beliefs and practices increase the expected utility of using indiscriminate violence as a tool of intimidation; facilitate the vilification of civilians, legitimating their status as targets; and socialize recruits and strengthen their ideological convictions, lowering reservations against using indiscriminate violence. We expand on existing research about religious ideology and political violence by showing how non-traditional spiritual beliefs and practices shape group tactics and amplify violence against civilians.
6) Michael J. Soules, Joseph B. Phillips, and Kal Munis. "Women’s Status and the Gender Gap in Support for Political Violence." Draft Available Here.
Abstract: Women tend to be less supportive of military intervention than men, and countries where women’s political empowerment is higher experience less internal conflict. However, little is known about the relationship between gender and attitudes toward political violence within one’s own country. We test between competing possibilities on the presence and variation of a gender gap in these attitudes. One strand of research suggests that as societal gender equality increases, the gender gap will decrease because the erosion of masculinist norms of solving disputes with violence reduces men’s support for political violence. A second strand suggests that the gender gap would increase in egalitarian societies because women’s political attitudes are more liberal and anti-war under more egalitarian conditions. A third strand is agnostic on what levels of gender inequality do, but suggests that sudden increase in equality may lead sexist men to turn to political violence to counteract perceived dominance threats. Using large-scale survey data, find that the gender gap, while generally present, is higher in more egalitarian societies. There is no evidence that support for political violence surges among sexist men in response to advances in women’s empowerment.
Other Working Papers
1) Michael J. Soules and Mark Berlin. "A Call to Arms: How Rebel Groups Choose Their Recruitment Tactics." Draft Available Here.
Abstract: Why do some rebel groups mobilize around diverse grievances, while others organize around a narrow set of issues? Employing diverse recruitment appeals is potentially risky. On the one hand, such groups can widen their recruitment pool by appealing to broader segments of society. On the other hand, groups that represent multiple interests are often plagued by in-fighting and low cohesion, as members disagree about which issues to prioritize. Building off existing research, we contend that radical Islamist groups are more likely to draw on a diverse range of claims than other rebel organizations, as they are better able to absorb the costs, and can derive significant benefits, from doing so. This is because radical Islamist movements have the incentive and capacity to unite diverse interests through shared identity; they can use diverse grievances to promote the idea that Islam is threatened, and their frequent internationalization places them in conflict with local, regional, and international actors, widening the scope of their grievances. To analyze this argument, we leverage novel data on the recruitment practices of 232 rebel movements across the world. We find support for the hypothesis that radical Islamist groups employ more diverse ideological appeals than organizations of different ideologies.
2) Soules, Michael J., Shelby Davis, Olayinka Otesanya, and Brandon Bolte. " Draft Available Here.
Abstract: What drives women’s participation in pro-government militias? Anecdotal examples of women’s participation in militias in places like Indonesia and Iran is particularly puzzling, as it involves female militia members violently repressing other women. This is puzzling both because to uphold traditional gender norms, regimes and their militias violate traditional gender norms by recruiting women; and because women in these militias are contributing to the maintenance of a status quo that largely makes society unsafe for women. In response to these puzzles, we argue that high levels of physical insecurity for women increase both the demand militias have for women, and the supply of women willing to join. Regimes and their militias in such societies can recruit women to (1) mitigate the reputational costs of poor women’s security; (2) uphold traditional gender norms; and (3) more effectively police other women. Such physical insecurity can also drive women to join militias for protection. To evaluate this argument, we collect novel data on 504 pro-government militias that were active across the world at some point between 1981 and 2014. We find evidence that women’s participation in pro-government militias is much more likely in societies with very low levels of physical security for women.